Foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) have net sold domestic shares worth over $10 billion so far this month amid a shift to China, which not only offers attractive valuations compared to India but has also announced several measures to support the economy and the stock market in recent weeks. If the trend doesn't reverse, this will be the first time that overseas funds will yank out more than $10 billion from Indian equity markets in a month.
In the shadows of a sliding rupee, India's knitwear hub Tiruppur is weaving a success story. While the domestic currency edges closer to the 86 mark against the US dollar, triggering concerns for many sectors, this textile town in Tamil Nadu is finding opportunity in adversity: Between April and December alone, Tiruppur's exports reached Rs 26,000 crore, almost eclipsing last financial year's total of Rs 30,690 crore.
'War is not an answer. War is not a solution.' 'Deterrence is a solution. We should have the stick with us with which we can beat Pakistan.'
'Given that the situation is quickly escalating, such attacks will affect the flow of crude in the short term from West Asia' Subhayan Chakraborty and Dhruvaksh Saha report.
The Reserve Bank of India's (RBI's) interest rate decision, West Asia conflict and trading activity of foreign investors are the key factors that will dictate investors' sentiment in the market this week, analysts said. Moreover, quarterly earnings from IT bellwether TCS, domestic macroeconomic data and movement in global oil benchmark Brent crude would also guide trends in the market. Worsening tensions in the Middle East and foreign fund outflows were the major culprits behind the equity markets sharp fall last week.
The narrative on China is changing post the recent stimulus measures, and it will be hard for global investors to ignore the Chinese markets.
After a strong run in the midcap and smallcap indices, which surged 46 per cent and 43 per cent, respectively, on the National Stock Exchange (NSE) during Samvat 2080, analysts suggest that the rally in these segments may pause to catch its breath in Samvat 2081.
Global financial markets are wrong in hoping that the worst is over in geopolitical crises such as the Iran-Israel conflict and the Russia-Ukraine war, wrote Christopher Wood, global head of equity strategy at Jefferies, in a recent note to investors called 'GREED & fear'. While most investors and the media are focused on United States (US) Federal Reserve policy and the "endless chatter" of Fed governors, Wood believes the news flow in the financial sphere "pales into complete insignificance" compared with the "tectonic shifts" going on in geopolitics.
Stock Market News today, PSU banks: The year 2024 was a roller-coaster ride for Indian stock markets, marked by volatility driven by the Lok Sabha elections, Union Budget 2024, a slowdown in corporate earnings, and sticky inflation. Geopolitical tensions - particularly between Israel and Iran in West Asia - along with various stimulus announcements by China and yen carry trade rocked the equity markets throughout the year.
On a five-day rolling basis, FPI selling is the highest in 24 years.
Engineering and construction major Larsen & Toubro (L&T) reported a 25 per cent rise in net profit attributable to the owners of the company for the January-March quarter of 2024-25, owing to higher revenues and an exceptional gain. For the quarter under review, L&T posted a consolidated net profit of Rs 5,497.3 crore, while revenue rose 10.9 per cent year-on-year (Y-o-Y) to Rs 74,392.28 crore.
The new Samvat 2080 is viewed as a year of hope for industrial and precious metals. A key reason is the expectation of US interest rates peaking, followed by a reduction in the coming months. Regarding crude oil, its trajectory depends more on how the situation unfolds in West Asia.
'Over the next 12 months, it will be difficult to make 15 to 20 per cent return in the markets as the valuations appear stretched.'
From the 30 Sensex firms, Larsen & Toubro, Reliance Industries, Axis Bank, Asian Paints, Tata Motors, Bajaj Finance, Maruti, Bajaj Finserv, Kotak Mahindra Bank, Titan, Adani Ports and HDFC Bank were the major laggards. JSW Steel emerged as the only gainer.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi and French President Emmanuel Macron have called for enhancing trade and investment ties between their countries and committed to further deepening their engagement in the Indo-Pacific. They discussed a full spectrum of bilateral relations, including key global and regional issues, and stressed the urgent need for reform in the United Nations Security Council. The leaders also underscored their commitment to ensuring the global AI sector can drive positive social, economic, and environmental outcomes.
'Trump's desire to withdraw the US from some arenas on the global stage will result in ceding space to China.'
Even as Russia and West Asia have been slugging it out for market share in India to sell their crude oil, the US is quietly making its moves on the sidelines. The US has doubled its share of the Indian crude market in the past few months, according to industry sources and ship-tracking data. Some of the increase in America's market share may have come at the expense of Russia, India's biggest crude oil supplier, said industry sources.
Trump's sweeping tariffs and penalties on China-built ships have turned global shipping into the front line of economic war, observes Shyam G Menon.
Dabur's performance in the July-September quarter of the current financial year (Q2FY25) was weak but in line with consensus. Consolidated revenue declined 5 per cent year-on-year (Y-o-Y) due to a temporary adjustment in General Trade (GT) inventory. Indian revenue declined 7.6 per cent, while international business grew 13 per cent Y-o-Y in constant currency (CC) terms.
Gold is an excellent asset class for diversification and should be included in all long-term portfolios.
'Even now, investors are not bothered about the war but are more concerned whether it will remain localised or not.' 'In case things are contained, markets can stage a bounce back in the next few days.'
'China is India's primary strategic challenge, which will not go away.
'Had Haji Pir and/or Skardu been taken, the message would have gone out not just to General Asim Munir and his cohort in the Pakistan army but to the Pakistani people that every terrorist incident in India would lead to substantial loss of territory in PoK.'
Escalation of the conflict in West Asia between Israel and Iran has had a direct impact on the energy markets, and more broadly on the financial markets as well as the global economy.
All investors should ideally have a 10 to 15 per cent allocation to gold. Whether they invest in gold ETFs or SGBs should depend on their investment horizon.
Investors in West Asia can now trade in Indian currency with Dubai Gold and Commodity Exchange announcing on Wednesday the launch of world's first Rupee Currency Contract.
Why should India buy olives from Europe when it could do so from the world's largest producers?
'Higher interest rates make gold less attractive as it doesn't generate yield.' 'However, with rates set to fall, the tables are turning for gold.'
The India-United States relationship is set to expand under the Donald Trump administration, but there could be some unease on issues like imports, tariffs and immigration, strategic affairs experts said after the Republican leader won the fiercely contested presidential election.
'The biggest near-term risk to Indian equities is the outflow of investments to China as tactical trades by foreign investors.'
The minister said this underlying resentment and pain of those countries regarding the global economy was building up for the last 15-20 years and the COVID-19 pandemic and the Ukraine conflict resulted in prices of energy and food items going up.
The Indian Navy, which regards itself as the 'net security provider' in the Indian Ocean Region, has also stepped up to the plate, with a warship stationed at all times off the Gulf of Aden for counter-piracy tasks. 91 Indian warships have been deployed in the region since 2008, patrolling high risk areas where piracy was rampant.
Sources are in touch with Iranian authorities through diplomatic channels, both in Tehran and in Delhi.
'A 10 to 15 per cent allocation to gold in portfolios reduces risk without compromising on potential returns.'
Gold, a safe-haven bet, is likely to continue its record-smashing journey in the New Year, rising to Rs 85,000 per 10 grams and even Rs 90,000 level in domestic markets if geopolitical tensions and global economic uncertainties continue.
From highways connecting once-remote regions to aviation networks carrying millions, India's infrastructure story is one of transformation.
Thomson Reuters Proprietary Research study pointed to a strong momentum for gold over the medium term, identifying strong global liquidity and low interest rates as support for a continued rally.
'There are ominous portents of an isolationist administration not only building a physical wall to the south to prevent unwanted immigrants from entering the land of milk and honey, but also trade walls not just against China, but all nations,' foresees Sreekant Sambrani.
As Donald Trump registered a historic comeback in the US presidential election, many former Indian diplomats on Wednesday concurred that the India-US ties will "continue to grow" from strength to strength, even as some of them cautioned that Trump is "highly unpredictable" and New Delhi will have to "wait and watch" to see what position he adopts going forward.
